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LUMBER MARKET 2022: U.S. Futures Get A Little Boost, European Demand, Formal Russian Lumber Sanctions Hit

By Robert Hainer

United States of America – Lumber futures traded on the CME boards made a way back into the $600’s on July contracts Wednesday. Orders began to pick up steam last week and inventories moved after a stalled winter and spring as most builders sat on the sidelines. The United States has been enjoying lower prices on lumber during the busy spring season as we move into the summer months. The United States so far in 2022 has remained unscathed from calamity from the European markets and the war in Ukraine.

This market streak may have some bumps as we move toward winter and spring 2023. Timing of the war crimes by Russia and when the attempted invasion ends will play a major part in Lumber Industry logistics, materials management and costs.

When the war enters the rebuilding efforts we will see some shock to the systems depending on European demand and else where in the world. Currently the Biden administration is not pursuing tariff reductions with Canada as it is not needed.

Timing of further inflation taming will also correlate with housing demand in the United States due to rising interest rates. The timing of stalled demand boomeranging back will most likely will coincide with rebuilding efforts in Ukraine further stressing costs and demand.

Lumber Reports

  1. Russian Sawmills Hit By Sanctions via Global Wood Markets Info
  2. Ban On Wood Pellets To Europe via Lesprom
  3. Yellen Says Biden not Considering Canadian Lumber For Tariff Relief via Reuters
  4. Russia Exports Of Lumber To China Fall 19% In May via Lesprom
  5. Chinese companies linked to illegal logging and mining in northern DRC via MongaBay

Other Lumber Market Conditions

Poland And Finland Lumber & Logging industries are beginning to see strains and market fluctuations in demand and prices. The world is recording and witnessing much more fair and stricter enforcement world wide on illegal logging, rain forest destruction, illegal sourcing & importing and market manipulations. This should be a new consideration when planning purchases, logistics and scheduling as well. We will see increased scrutiny on otherwise unknown product reaching the markets.

Pulp related products have continued demand and price. Lumber industry is also beginning to produce more laminated and recycled or sustainable materials for distribution to balance demand between raw lumber industry materials: virgin timber materials, construction timber waste, and logging & forestry waste. These products are entering more engineered products like Huber & Ox Engineering‘s sheathings, Cross Laminated Timber, Structural stud materials and other engineered panel products.

CME futures are only one market factor to consider or just one hedge method. New markets have emerged creating more buying power for traditional builders and developers that wish to buy lumber in real time like MaterialsXchange’s real time order board. Pre-orders or “forward contracts” now for fall or spring may be attractive now verses this winter.

 

 

 

Cover Photo Credit Robert Hainer

 

 

Via The Bylt Team

#geoweek #geoweek2023 #geospatial

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