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As Putin Exiles The Russian People What Could World Trade Look Like Without China, Russia And Saudi Arabia

Алексей Еремеев

Moscow, Russia – With President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine at a time the world has come together to protect it’s people and rebuild from Coronavirus what will world trade look like without Russia and it’s allies? There is no doubt the United States Of America and the world will now come together and hold a zero tolerance to this this type of aimless behavior, waste of resources and terror to Europe. As Putin furthers his exile of himself, and unfortunately collaterally the people of Russia, China and Saudi Arabia, the world will mostly likely move rapidly to cease trade with the countries over time despite the consequences.

What Are Russia’s Top Imports

  • Imports to Russia increased 22.4 percent year on year to USD 30.68 billion in December 2021, the highest level since December 2013, boosted by purchases from non-CIS countries (21.8 percent) and CIS nations (21.8 percent) (28.1 percent).
  • Imports surged 26.5 percent to $296.1 billion in total for 2021.
  • Imports of machinery and equipment accounted for the lion’s share of total imports (an increase of 30.8 percent from 2020).
  • Mechanical equipment increased by 25.9%, electrical equipment by 21.8%, and optical instruments and apparatus by 6.9%.

The CIS sprang from the Russian Empire, which was succeeded by the Russian Republic in 1917 following the February Revolution earlier that year. Following the October Revolution, the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, along with the Byelorussian SSR, Ukrainian SSR, and Transcaucasian SFSR, established the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic as the leading republic in the Soviet Union (USSR) with the 1922 Treaty and Declaration of the Creation of the USSR.

When the USSR began to fall apart in 1991, the founding nations signed the Belavezha Accords on December 8, 1991, announcing that the Soviet Union would cease to exist and establishing the CIS in its stead. A few days later, the Alma-Ata Protocol was signed, thus dissolving the Soviet Union.

RUSSIA TOP 20 IMPORTS

RUSSIA ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS

United States & Allies May Have To Increase Energy Production, Key Markets, To Replace Russia’s Market And Customers Contracts

As sanctions mount the United States and the world now prepares for a double-time response to responsible purchasing and sourcing and will not be concerned with this distraction. Even if it is oil use temporarily and strategically. Main focuses should be on steal and oil. Most likely Saudi Arabia will continue to, and is, allying via trade along with it’s Military Cooperation Agreement with Russia. Eyes should remain and will remain on Saudi Arabia as well for volatility and supply.

Why Is Saudi Arabia Aiding Russia?

Why is Saudi Arabia aiding Russia? It is not a political decision, but an economic one. While many are portraying the decision as diplomatic, especially in light of rising Russia-Saudi collaboration in recent years, this may not be the only reason influencing Saudi Arabia’s decision. Saudi Arabia’s reluctance may be due in part to the country’s belief that the present price surge is merely the product of anticipation of a confrontation in Europe. According to a recent OPEC assessment, there was already a possible worldwide surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day in the first quarter of the year, raising concerns about a future supply glut. However, it cannot be excluded out that Saudi Arabia has experienced increased cooperation with Russia in a variety of areas in recent years. In August 2021, they signed a military cooperation pact aimed at expanding collaborative military collaboration between the two countries.

Imports to Saudi Arabia increased 17.7% year on year to a 29-month high of SAR 53.5 billion in December 2021. China accounted for 21.5 percent of all imports, followed by the United States (11.2 percent) and the United Kingdom (6.6 percent).

Economic Data

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Account Last Previous Unit Reference
Balance of Trade 52733.00 57374.00 Million SAR Dec 2021
Current Account 21717.00 8731.00 USD Million Sep 2021
Exports 106256.00 107952.00 Million SAR Dec 2021
Imports 53523.00 49399.00 Million SAR Dec 2021
Capital Flows 19503.53 10797.49 USD Million Sep 2021
Oil Exports 82395.00 69378.00 Million SAR Oct 2021
Non Oil Exports 20041.00 19666.00 Million SAR Oct 2021
Foreign Direct Investment 1753.00 13829.00 USD Million Sep 2021
Remittances 34801.00 34735.00 SAR Million Mar 2021

Saudi Arabia’s principal imports are machinery, mechanical appliances, and electrical equipment (27 percent of total imports), transportation equipment and parts (16 percent), basic metals (13 percent), chemicals and allied items (9 percent), and vegetables (9 percent) (6 percent).

  • China 13 percent of total imports
  • United States 12.6%
  • Germany 7%
  • Japan 6 percent
  • South Korea, United Arab Emirates, France, and Italy are among the others

Saudi Arabia is now producing 10 million barrels per day, compared to a quota of 12 million barrels per day. The kingdom has the capacity to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day, which would take around three months to achieve full production capacity.

  • Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus increased sharply to SAR 52.7 billion in December 2021, up from SAR 19.9 billion the previous year, owing to continued strong global demand and rising commodity prices.
  • Exports increased 62.6 percent year on year to SAR 106.3 billion, driven by both oil products (65.9 percent) and non-oil items (54.5 percent).
  • China received the greatest percentage of exports, accounting for 16.6 percent of the total, followed by Japan (10.8 percent) and India (10.8 percent ).
  • Imports increased at a significantly slower rate of 17.7 percent to SAR 53.5 billion.
  • China accounted for 21.5 percent of total imports, followed by the United States (11.2 percent), and the United Kingdom (UEA) (6.6 percent ).
  • The country’s trade surplus increased dramatically to SAR 468 billion for the full fiscal year of 2021, up from SAR 428 billion in the previous year.

 

As time proceeds real sanctions will roll out worldwide and most likely accumulate from peers putting pressure on any country trading with Russia and it’s allies. Expect strong demand for domestic goods to increase with rapid energy development. Supply chains will begin to see hiccups as bugs will be worked out. Supply Chain professionals and procurement agencies will need to be prepared on top of current issues and plan ahead for variables and geopolitical restrictions.

China

All though not involved in the Biden Administration press meeting today China is Russia’s top ally and geographical partner. With China’s current economy shrinking sanctions will most likely be implemented to further its economic and political pain not only for its support of the invasion of Ukraine but for its own humanitarian crisis within it’s own country and what has spread to the world as well. Although the situation will create mounting stress on supply chains world wide the moves will ultimately spur strong economic segments. Financial markets and currency will move to more concentrated geographical areas.

China’s economy is massive compared to Russia but with or without sanctions you will most likely see China’s economy to continue to shrink with regards to Russia’s actions early this morning as the world economy and it’s peers are more empathetic and socially responsible. Corporations will continue to distance themselves from the nations rapidly and face intense pressure to remove any products from their supply chains.

China Is Not A Big Importer

Imports into China fell to 246.04 billion USD in December, down from 253.16 billion USD in November of 2021.

China Top 20 Imports

China Imports By Category Value Year
Electrical, electronic equipment $548.74B 2020
Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products $267.56B 2020
Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers $191.96B 2020
Ores slag and ash $180.02B 2020
Optical, photo, technical, medical apparatus $99.10B 2020
Vehicles other than railway, tramway $73.97B 2020
Plastics $71.04B 2020
Copper $48.55B 2020
Organic chemicals $45.56B 2020
Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruits $44.96B 2020
Iron and steel $36.82B 2020
Pharmaceutical products $34.92B 2020
Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins $31.75B 2020
Meat and edible meat offal $30.27B 2020
Essential oils, perfumes, cosmetics, toileteries $20.49B 2020
Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal $20.19B 2020
Miscellaneous chemical products $18.84B 2020
Pulp of wood, fibrous cellulosic material, waste $16.91B 2020
Rubbers $16.13B 2020

China’s trade surplus increased rapidly to a new record high of USD 94.46 billion in December 2021, up from USD 75.8 billion the previous month, handily exceeding market expectations of USD 74.5 billion. For the 15th month in a row, exports increased by 20.9 percent year on year to USD 340.50 billion, while imports increased by a weaker 19.5 percent to USD 246.04 billion.

The trade surplus increased to USD 676.4 billion for the entire year 2021, the greatest on record, from USD 524 billion in 2020, as exports increased 29.9 percent and imports increased 30.1 percent. China’s trade surplus with the United States was USD 39.23 billion in December and USD 396.58 billion for the entire year 2021, a 25% increase.

Data does not take into account crypto or cryptographic transactions.

 

 

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